(Updated 13.December.07)
10 Trend Horses for November 2007
ARDAGHEY (IRE)
8yo b/br g (N A Twiston-Davies)
Won well on his reappearance at Cheltenham (19 October) but I wouldn’t be rushing to back this best-fresh type if brought back quickly.
Race type
NHF: 14 (1-2)
Hdl: 41 (1-2)
Ch: 36P21UF01P0621 (3-14)
Conclusion: he is effective over hurdles and fences.
Fresh (absence since last race)
42 days or longer: 113P1121 (5-8)
35-41 days: no runs
34 days or less: 4462UF0P06 (0-10)
Conclusion: he runs especially well when fresh.
Summary of ideal conditions
When running fresh (after a break of five weeks or longer) his record is: 113P1121 (5-8). From left to right: 1st, 1st, 3rd - entitled to need the experience on his chase debut in a race won by Star De Mohaison, P - pulled up (saddle slipped), 1st, 1st, 2nd - far from disgraced when nine lengths behind Simon in the 2007 Skybet Chase, and 1st.
BRAVE VILLA (FR)
8yo b g (M Sheppard)
Best known as a front-runner, he was wisely held up in a race packed full of pacesetters at Uttoxeter last time (17 October) before pouncing late for a 7-1 success, his fourth straight chase win in fields of 11 or less.
Race type
Hdl: 060210620U90 (1-12)
Chs: 0F003211411 (4-11)
Conclusion: he is best over fences.
Field size (chase runs)
12 or more runners: 0F0034 (0-6)
8-11 runners: 121 (2-3)
7 or fewer runners: 11 (2-2)
Conclusion: he's a front-runner and is best able to dominate when racing in small fields.
Summary of ideal conditions
When racing in chases of 11 or fewer runners his record is: 21111 (4-5), with the sole defeat by half a length. All these runs took place at 2m-2m2f on good to soft/softer going.
COME BYE (IRE)
11yo b g (Miss A M Newton-Smith)
He didn’t show much on his comeback at Plumpton (22 October) but the ground was too quick and he has never won away from Folkestone or Fontwell.
Race type
Hdl: B8P287866253421114P915014P9090621P146 (7-37)
Chs: 7P (0-2)
Conclusion: he's best over hurdles.
Going
Good or faster: 8787P6625342P90647 (0-18)
Good to soft: 829501P90P (1-10)
Soft/heavy: BP111414211 (6-11)
Conclusion: he has yet to win on good or faster going.
Course
Folkestone: P8111 (3-5)
Fontwell: 266211P151096 (4-13)
Others: B8787P25344904P902P46 (0-21)
Conclusion: he has yet to win away from Fontwell or Folkestone.
Field size
12 or more runners: BP878231P90P9006 (1-16)
10-11 runners: 27259P (0-6)
9 or fewer runners: 8P665411411421146 (6-17)
Conclusion: the majority of his wins have come in single-figure fields.
Summary of ideal conditions
Combine good to soft or softer going with racing over hurdles at Fontwell or Folkestone and his record becomes: P2111151011 (7-11), improving to: 111111 (6-6) in fields of nine or fewer runners.
CROZAN (FR)
7yo b g (N J Henderson)
He runs well fresh and will be of particular interest first time out this season.
Fresh (absence since last race)
84 days or longer: 12 (1-2)
56-83 days: F (0-1)
42-55 days: 4PP (0-3)
41 days or less: P4 (0-2)
Conclusion: he needs long breaks between his races. His sole win came on his seasonal debut.
Summary of ideal conditions
Quite simply he's best when fresh, his three British runs after long breaks (eight weeks plus) returning figures of: 12F (1-3). From left to right: 1st - scored by seven lengths in a Class 2 novice chase at Cheltenham (2m4f110y, good to soft), 2nd - short-headed by Tamarinbleu in a graduation chase at Ascot (2m5f110y, good to soft) and F - one length up and still travelling strongly when tipping up four out in the Grade 2 Ryanair Chase at the 2007 Cheltenham Festival (2m5f, good).
If he runs well on his reappearance don't be afraid to lay him at short odds next time if he makes a quick return to action; he was beaten by 28 lengths into fourth (of five) when a 2-1 shot for his second outing during the 2005/6 season and was pulled up when 7-4 for his second start last term.
HILLTIME (IRE)
7yo b g (J S Wainwright)
His trainer is better know for his exploits on the Flat but was responsible for a 20-1 chase winner at Kempton recently and I expect Hilltime to improve his already healthy strike-rate next time out.
Race type
Hdl: 1213013210355566 (4-16)
Chs: 1242 (1-4)
Conclusion: he is effective over hurdles and fences.
Going
Good to firm or faster: 11315524 (3-8)
Good: 20132031562 (2-11)
Good to soft or softer: 6 (0-1)
Conclusion: he seems best on fast going.
Fresh (absence since last race)
42 days or longer: 13115 (3-5)
28-41 days: 6 (0-1)
27 days or less: 21032035152642 (2-14)
Conclusion: he runs especially well when fresh.
Summary of ideal conditions
When running fresh (after a break of six weeks or longer since his previous outing) his record is: 13115 (3-5). From left to right: 1st, 3rd, 1st, 1st and 5th - just out of the places when 100-1 for a 22-runner Listed handicap hurdle at the 2007 Aintree Festival (beaten by less than four lengths). A trip of around 2m on fast ground is ideal.
KEENAN'S FUTURE (IRE)
6yo ch g (Ian Williams)
His backers were put away by the official going description of ‘good’ at Bangor on 13 October (the race times suggested it was closer to firm) and it was also too quick for him at Cheltenham six days later. He was far from disgraced in either contest but will be something to bet on when given a left-handed track and good to soft or softer going.
Race type
NHF: 3 (0-1)
Hdl: 11U (2-3)
Chs: B3R15146 (2-8)
Conclusion: he won both his completed starts over hurdles and has already scored twice over fences.
Going
Good to firm or faster: no runs
Good: 31546 (1-5)
Good to soft: 1R1 (2-3)
Soft: 3B (0-2)
Heavy: 1U (1-2)
Conclusion: he is likely to prove best on good to soft or softer going.
Track
Left-handed: 31U15146 (3-8)
Right-handed: 1B3R (1-4)
Conclusion: one of his hurdle wins came on a right-handed track but he has been campaigned exclusively on left-handed courses since hanging left and running out in a novice chase at Exeter in March 2007. His latest win came over 3m2f110y.
Summary of ideal conditions
When racing over hurdles or on left-handed chase tracks his record becomes: 11U15146 (4-8), improving to: 11U11 (4-5) on ground slower than good.
LATIMER'S PLACE
11yo b g (N J Gifford)
Ran a fair race to finish second of 12 at Kempton last time (21 October) but has still to win a big-field chase.
Race type
NHF: 8 (0-1)
Hdl: 1641 (2-4)
Chs: 59F1U3317841F15P632 (4-19)
Conclusion: he's effective over hurdles and fences.
Distance
2m-2m3f110y: 8169 (1-4)
2m4f-2m6f110y: 415F1U3343 (2-10)
3m+: 1781F15P62 (3-10)
Conclusion: he seems to need 3m or further nowadays.
Field size (chase runs only)
12 or more runners: 93785P632 (0-9)
8-11 runners: F (0-1)
7 or fewer runners: 51U3141F1 (4-9)
Conclusion: he is still inclined to make jumping errors and has yet to win a chase of more than seven runners.
Summary of ideal conditions
Combine chase starts with racing at 3m or further, in small fields (seven or fewer runners), and his record becomes: 11F1 (3-4). He has winning form on fast and soft going.
MALJIMAR (IRE)
7yo b g (Nick Williams)
I had this one doubled up with Miss Lucifer at 33-1 (winner of the opener at Newmarket on Saturday 20 October) so was absolutely gutted when he was done on the line by Knowhere after being matched at 1.07 in-running (backed from 9-1 into 12-1 pre-race). I expect he’ll be given five to six weeks off, as his trainer agrees with my ‘best fresh’ theory.
Race type
NHF: 2 (0-1)
Hdl: 6P14 (1-4)
Chs: F23132 (1-6)
Conclusion: he has yet to finish out of the first three when completing the course over fences.
Distance
2m-2m1f: 26 (0-2)
2m2f-2m5f: P1423132 (2-8)
3m+: F (0-1)
Conclusion: his latest win came at 2m3f but he does stay further.
Going
Good to firm or faster: 14 (1-2)
Good: 6P2 (0-3)
Good to soft: 2F23 (0-4)
Soft: 31 (1-2)
Heavy: no runs
Conclusion: he is versatile with regard to underfoot conditions.
Track
Flat: 2P141 (2-5)
Significant undulations: 6F2332 (0-6)
Conclusion: both his wins came on flat tracks (Fontwell and Newbury) but he does handle undulating courses.
Fresh (absence since last race)
42 days or longer: 26P1F1 (2-6)
28-41 days: 3 (0-1)
27 days or less: 423 (0-3)
Conclusion: he runs especially well when fresh.
Summary of ideal conditions
When running fresh (after a break of six weeks or longer) his record becomes: 26P1F12 (2-7), improving to: F12 (1-3) for current trainer Nick Williams. From left to right: F - tipped up four out at Chepstow when still travelling well (3m, good to soft), 1st - landed a soft-ground 2m3f handicap chase at Newbury and 2nd - beaten by a neck in a valuable 19-runner handicap chase at Cheltenham.
MR FLUFFY
10yo br g (A W Carroll)
He made a string of jumping errors before coming home sixth of the 12 runners at Kempton last time (21 October) but can be backed with confidence when next facing just six or fewer rivals.
Race type
NHF: 253 (0-3)
Hdl: 574F2111U2F705UP1UPPP (4-21)
Chs: 2F13FPU3187F456 (2-15)
Conclusion: he is effective over hurdles and fences.
Field size (hurdle starts only)
12 or more runners: 721F0UPUP (1-9)
8-11 runners: 54F1U27PP (1-9)
7 or fewer runners: 151 (2-3)
Field size (chase starts only)
12 or more runners: F356 (0-4)
8-11 runners: 23P87F4 (0-7)
7 or fewer runners: F1U1 (2-4)
Conclusion: he seems best in small fields.
Summary of ideal conditions
When racing over hurdles or fences in fields of seven or fewer runners his record is: 15F11U1 (4-7). From left to right: 1st - won a good-ground 2m6f novice hurdle, 5th - beaten by around 13 lengths in a handicap hurdle at Worcester (3m, good), F - well behind when falling in a Grade 2 novices' chase, 1st - landed a good-ground 3m beginners' chase at Kempton, 1st - beat Whispered Secret into second place in a handicap hurdle at Newton Abbot (2m6f, good to firm), U - still in contention when unseating his rider over fences at Market Rasen and 1st - won a handicap chase at Bangor (3m, soft).
PETITE MARGOT
8yo b m (N A Twiston-Davies)
A desperate record in big fields didn’t stop punters backing her to make a winning reappearance at Hereford (21 October) where she could only finish fifth of the 12 runners. She has a six-from-seven record in fields of seven or fewer runners and should be a fair price when next encountering her preferred conditions.
Race type
NHF: 9431 (1-4)
Hdl: 11142341P1530907 (5-16)
Ch: 1126PP5 (2-7)
Conclusion: she's effective over hurdles and fences.
Distance
2m-2m2f110y: 9431 (1-4)
2m3f-2m5f110y: 14312 (2-5)
2m6f+: 114231P15090716PP5 (5-18)
Conclusion: she's effective at trips of about 2m4f but is likely to prove best over 2m6f or further.
Field size
12 or more runners: 9434234P5090P5 (0-14)
8-11 runners: 11376P (2-6)
7 or fewer runners: 1111112 (6-7)
Conclusion: she tends to lose her position in big fields and has lost all 13 starts in fields of 12 or more runners.
Summary of ideal conditions
When racing in small fields (11 or fewer runners over hurdles, seven or fewer over fences) her record is: 11111137112 (8-11), with the first defeat coming over an inadequate trip and the next one on her return from a near two-year absence.
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(Updated 16.October.07)
10 Trend Horses for October 2007
ELEAZAR (GER)
6yo b/br g (Mrs L Wadham)
Ran well on his reappearance at Market Rasen (29 September) and freshness would appear to be the key.
Race type
Hdl: 44231P113 (3-9)
Chs: 345 (0-3)
Conclusion: he is best over hurdles.
Fresh (absence since last race)
35 days or longer: 4135113 (3-7)
28-34 days: 3 (0-1)
27 days or less: 42P4 (0-4)
Conclusion: he runs especially well when fresh.
Summary of ideal conditions
Combine hurdle starts with running fresh (after a break of five weeks or longer) and his record becomes: 431113 (3-6). From left to right: 4th of 15 - entitled to need the experience when beaten by 10 lengths on UK and hurdles debut (2m, good to soft), 3rd - jumped poorly in a 2m4f novices' hurdle at Fakenham, 1st - won at Haydock (2m, good), 1st - won by 11 lengths when 18-1 for a 17-runner handicap at Haydock (2m4f, good), 1st - won, eased down, by 10 lengths at Bangor (2m4f, good), and 3rd - beaten by just over four lengths when 20-1 for a 17-runner handicap at Market Rasen (2m4f, good).
FRENEYS WELL
7yo b g (E Bolger)
I’d be amazed if this one doesn’t mop up the cross-country races at Cheltenham and Punchestown this season.
Race type
Chs: 6184U2202 (1-9)
Conclusion: all his runs have taken place over fences.
Summary of ideal conditions
He has just an Irish point-to-point win to show for his efforts thus far but it was in defeat that he caught the eye last season, finishing second to stablemate Spot Thedifference, seven years his senior, in the 4m2f La Touche Cup at Punchestown and leaving the firm impression that he could have been a lot closer with a more vigorous ride. He'll be very interesting in Cheltenham's cross-country races this term and will no doubt return to Punchestown for another crack at the La Touche Cup.
HE'S THE BIZ (FR)
8yo b g (Nick Williams)
According to trainer Nick Williams He’s The Biz, who suffered a near-fatal bout of colic last year, is difficult to get fit at home (hence the rather unkind nickname “He’s The Barrel!”) so it was encouraging to see him travel so well before fading into an eight-length fourth on his Newton Abbot reappearance. That race will have done him the world of good and he looks must-bet material next time.
Race type
NHF: 0 (0-1)
Hdl: 065PP1314PP0 (2-12)
Chs: 364F2811FP3353617126464 (4-23)
Conclusion: he's effective over hurdles and fences.
Distance
1m5f-2m2f: 0065PP38 (0-8)
2m3f-2m5f110y: 1366 (1-4)
2m6f-2m7f110y: P411726 (2-7)
3m+: 14PF21FP033536144 (3-17)
Conclusion: he needs a distance beyond 2m2f.
Going
Good to firm or faster: 111012464 (4-9)
Good: P34PP364F81F367 (1-15)
Good to soft: 06P2P3531 (1-9)
Soft/heavy: 056 (0-3)
Conclusion: he has done his winning on good to soft or faster going.
Course
Worcester: 111176 (4-6)
Others: 0065PP34PP364F281FP03353612644 (2-30)
Conclusion: he has a good record at Worcester. His other wins came at Newton Abbot.
Fresh (absence since last race)
42 days or longer: 0PP3P3836664 (0-12)
29-41 days: 447 (0-3)
15-28 days: 05P11F35314 (3-11)
14 days or less: 6116F2P012 (3-10)
Conclusion: all his wins came when returned to the track quickly (12, four, 15, 20, 23 and nine days after his previous outing).
Summary of ideal conditions
Combine hurdle or chase starts with running over a distance of 2m3f or further, on good or faster going, after a recent run (28 days or less since a previous outing) and his record becomes: 11P64F11F03146 (5-14), improving to: 11116 (4-5) at Worcester only.
INCHNADAMPH
7yo b g (T J Fitzgerald)
Though no spring chicken he has placed in the last two runnings of the Totesport Cesarewitch (at 50-1 and 25-1) and could again reward each-way support in this year’s renewal (20 October).
Distance
7f-1m: 58008 (0-5)
1m-1m2f: 6 (0-1)
1m2f110y-1m3f: 202 (0-3)
1m4f-1m5f: 115340 (2-6)
1m6f: 82121000 (2-8)
2m+: 13072013 (2-8)
Conclusion: he is suited by marathon trips, finishing third and second in the last two runnings of the Cesarewitch over 2m2f.
Going
Good to firm or faster: 588521130 (2-9)
Good: 211831100 (4-9)
Good to soft: 0203720 (0-7)
Soft/heavy: 0624 (0-4)
Fibresand: 0 (0-1)
Polytrack: 0 (0-1)
Conclusion: he seems best on good to soft or faster going.
Fresh (absence since last race)
56 days or longer: 500683000 (0-9)
42-55 days: 4072 (0-4)
41 days or less: 808221152121130130 (6-18)
Conclusion: he has yet to win after a long layoff.
Summary of ideal conditions
Combine a distance of 1m2f110y or further with racing on good to soft or faster going, when returning to the track within six weeks of his previous outing, and his record becomes: 22115121130130 (6-14), with three of the defeats coming in photo finishes.
JEDBURGH
6yo b h (J L Dunlop)
Been running well of late, despite not having the small field he needs, but should find a race before the season’s out.
Distance
6f: 5 (0-1)
7f: 3201113285010514563161207970683 (7-31)
7f120y-8f: 9327 (0-4)
Conclusion: he is a 7f specialist.
Going
Firm: 2 (0-1)
Good to firm: 3111385151546161703 (7-19)
Good: 09320053207768 (0-14)
Good to soft: 29 (0-2)
Conclusion: he runs best on fast ground.
Field size
12 or more runners: 309338501016090683 (2-18)
8-11 runners: 255462770 (0-9)
6-7 runners: 253 (0-3)
5 or fewer runners: 111211 (5-6)
Conclusion: he seems best in very small fields.
Summary of ideal conditions
Combine a distance of 7f with racing on good to firm or faster going and his record becomes: 321113851514616170683 (7-21), improving to: 11111 (5-5) in fields of five or fewer runners.
MASTER EDDY
7yo b g (S Lycett)
As the stable star in a small yard he should prove profitable during the 2007/2008 jumps season.
Race type
NHF: 3720 (0-4)
Hdl: 0282211 (2-7)
Conclusion: he has done well since switched to hurdles.
Distance
2m-2m2f: 3720 (0-4)
2m3f-2m7f: 0282 (0-4)
3m+: 211 (2-3)
Conclusion: he improved for the step up to 3m.
Class
1: 8 (0-1)
2: no runs
3: 21 (1-2)
4 or lower: 37200221 (1-8)
Conclusion: he was beaten out of sight when tried in Pattern class last season.
Summary of ideal conditions
Since finishing down the field at Chepstow on his hurdles debut his record below Pattern class is: 22211 (2-5), improving to: 211 (2-3) at 3m or further, with both wins coming at Newbury on good to soft/softer going.
NUDGE AND NURDLE (IRE)
6yo b g (N A Twiston-Davies)
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is flying at present and his Nudge And Nurdle, best on right-handed tracks, added to recent gains when landing a punt (7-2 from 5-1) at Market Rasen last time (29 September).
Race type
Hdl: 43S28813261 (1-11)
Conclusion: all his runs have taken place over hurdles.
Distance
2m-2m3f: 43 (0-2)
2m4f-2m6f: S28121 (2-6)
3m+: 836 (0-3)
Conclusion: he seems best at trips of about 2m5f
Track
Left-handed: 43S836 (0-6)
Right-handed: 28121 (2-5)
Conclusion: he seemed ill at ease on the left-handed track when a beaten favourite at Fakenham (16 February 2007) and is likely to prove best on right-handed tracks.
Summary of ideal conditions
When racing right-handed at 2m4f-2m6f his record becomes: 2121 (2-4)
THAT LOOK
4yo b g (D E Cantillon)
Trainer Don Cantillon has a fine strike-rate with his small string, especially at Huntingdon, and his That Look scored at that right-handed track on his latest outing (27 August).
Race type
Hdl: 1241 (2-4)
Chs: 1 (1-1)
Conclusion: he has a 50% strike-rate over hurdles and made a winning chase debut at Huntingdon, where his trainer has an excellent record.
Going
Good to firm or faster: 12411 (3-5)
Good: no runs
Good to soft or softer: no runs
Conclusion: he has only raced on very fast ground.
Track
Left-handed: 24 (0-2)
Right-handed: 111 (3-3)
Conclusion: he is unbeaten on right-handed tracks.
Summary of ideal conditions
When racing over hurdles or fences his record is: 12411 (3-5), improving to: 111 (3-3) on right-handed tracks.
UNITED (GER)
6yo b m (Mrs L Wadham)
She seemed to find the 3m trip beyond her but was far from disgraced in Grade 1 events at Cheltenham and Punchestown last spring and looks set for a good season.
Distance
2m-2m2f: 1118P50 (3-7)
2m3f-2m5f: 111 (3-3)
2m6f+: 2543 (0-4)
Conclusion: she seems best at 2m-2m5f.
Going
Good or faster: 5023 (0-4)
Good to soft: 154 (1-3)
Soft: 1181 (3-4)
Heavy: P11 (2-3)
Conclusion: she runs especially well on soft or heavy going.
Summary of ideal conditions
Combine a distance of 2m-2m5f with running on good to soft or softer going and her record becomes: 1118P111 (6-8).
VERY WISE
5yo b g (W J Haggas)
Ran a race full of promise when third to the progressive The Grey Berry at Ayr on 20 September (runner-up Best Prospect went one better at Haydock next time) and has to be of interest in the Cambridgeshire.
Distance
1m-1m1f: 164408314P160 (3-13)
1m2f: 043123 (1-6)
Conclusion: he has winning form from 1m-1m2f.
Going
Good to firm or faster: 644083 (0-6)
Good: 0 (0-1)
Good to soft: 0163 (1-4)
Soft/heavy: 14 (1-2)
Fibresand: 4 (0-1)
Polytrack: 131P2 (2-5)
Conclusion: his wins have come on slow turf or Polytrack.
Track
Straight: 11 (2-2)
Turning: 640440831431P2603 (2-17)
Conclusion: he is effective around a turn but is unbeaten on straight courses.
Field size
12 or more runners: 164008P2160 (2-11)
8-11 runners: 43433 (0-5)
7 or fewer runners: 411 (2-3)
Conclusion: two of his three four wins have come in small fields around a turn (six and seven ran), the others on straight tracks.
Summary of ideal conditions
When racing on a straight track or in a very small field around a turn (seven or fewer runners) his record is: 14111 (4-5), improving to: 1111 (4-4) on Polytrack or slow turf. |
