10 Trend Horses for December 2007

BOB BOB BOBBIN
8yo gr g (C L Tizzard)

A confirmed mudlark, it was hard to fathom the gamble on him at Cheltenham the other day (17 November) but no surprise to see him trail home sixth on the officially good going. He can be given another chance on soft or heavy ground, especially if dropped to Class 2 or lower level.

Race type
NHF: 2412 (1-4)
Hdl: 331144 (2-6)
Chs: 5U3112P14P6 (3-11)
Conclusion: he is effective over hurdles and fences.

Going
Good or faster: 423456 (0-6)
Good to soft: U3414P (1-6)
Soft: 213111 (4-6)
Heavy: 12P (1-3)
Conclusion: he's best on soft or heavy going.

Class
1: 24234424P6 (0-10)
2: UP (0-2)
3: 3311 (2-4)
4: 1151 (3-4)
5: no runs
6: 1 (1-1)
Conclusion: he has yet to win above Class 3 level.

Summary of ideal conditions
Combine good to soft or softer going with racing below Class 1 company and his record becomes: 111U311P1 (6-9).

ERIC'S CHARM (FR)
9yo b g (O Sherwood)

He would have needed the run, his first for over 18 months, when pulled up in a handicap hurdle at Haydock on 24 November and will be of interest on a right-handed track next time.

Race type
NHF: 11 (2-2)
Hdl: 51132124P (3-9)
Ch: F1216P12 (3-8)
Conclusion: he's effective over hurdles and fences.

Going
Good to firm or faster: 2 (0-1)
Good: 15131416P (4-9)
Good to soft: 112F21P (3-7)
Soft/heavy: 21 (1-2)
Conclusion: he seems to handle any going.

Fresh
Seasonal debuts: 11FPP (2-5)
Conclusion: he won first time out in 2002/03 (in a weak Fontwell bumper) and in 2003/04 (when 2-5 favourite in a poor contest) but has run as though needing his reappearance in the last few seasons.

Track
Left-handed: 15124F6P (2-8)
Right-handed: 11312121P12 (6-11)
Conclusion: the majority of his wins have come on right-handed tracks. The first of his left-handed-track wins came in a national hunt flat race and the other in a weak novice hurdle for which he started as the 2-5 favourite.

Summary of ideal conditions
When racing right-handed, excluding seasonal debuts, his record is: 1131212112 (6-10). From left to right: 1st, 1st, 3rd - found two miles on good ground an inadequate test of stamina, 1st, 2nd - only beaten by two and-a-half lengths in a 16-runner Grade 3 handicap hurdle, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, and 2nd - not beaten by far in the 2006 Betfred Gold Cup.

HARRIS BAY
8yo b g (Miss H C Knight)

Continued his good record for jockey Timmy Murphy, on board for his last seven wins, when scoring over fences at Ascot last time and remains of interest in small fields when racing right-handed.

Race type
NHF: 13 (1-2)
Hdl: 9P400716 (1-8)
Ch: 1131P1PP1 (6-10)
Conclusion: he's best over fences.

Track
Left-handed: P0P (0-3)
Right-handed: 13907111111P61 (8-14)
Figure-of-8: 43 (0-2)
Conclusion: he runs best on right-handed tracks.

Fresh
First two runs each season or after a break of five weeks+: 139P71131P11161 (8-15)
Others runs: 400PP (0-5)
Conclusion: he runs especially well when fresh.

Field size (chase starts only)
12 or more runners: PP (0-2)
11 or fewer runners: 1131P111 (6-8)
Conclusion: he seems best in small fields.

Summary of ideal conditions
Combine chase starts with racing on right-handed tracks and his record becomes: 11111PP1 (6-8), improving to: 111111 (6-6) in fields of 11 or less.

IRISH RAPTOR (IRE)
8yo b/br g (N A Twiston-Davies)

He doesn’t look an obvious one to follow after finishing eighth and sixth in his last two starts but both came in huge fields, latterly in the 19-runner Becher Chase over the Grand National fences at Aintree. Watch out for him in a small field on a more conventional track.

Race type
Hdl: 8469 (0-4)
Chs: PU31UU21217U786 (3-15)
Conclusion: he's best over fences.

Distance
2m-2m5f110y: PU8637 (0-6)
3m+: 491UU21271U86 (3-13)
Conclusion: he needs a trip of at least 3m.

Going
Good or faster: U978 (0-4)
Good to soft: P81U2U6 (1-7)
Soft: 3U11 (2-4)
Heavy: 4627 (0-4)
Conclusion: he seems best on good to soft or softer going.

Field size (chase runs only)
12 or more runners: UU786 (0-5)
8-11 runners: 31U27 (1-5)
7 or fewer runners: PU121 (2-5)
Conclusion: his jumping remains far from foot-perfect and he is likely to prove best in small fields.

Summary of ideal conditions
Combine chase starts of 3m or further with racing on good to soft or softer going, in fields of 11 or fewer runners, and his record becomes: 1UU21271 (3-8), with the seventh place coming in a Grade 2 contest.

JUG OF PUNCH (IRE)
8yo ch g (S T Lewis)

There won’t be many rushing to back him after his reappearance 13th of 21 when 100-1 for a handicap hurdle at the Paddy Power meeting but he has always needed a run and Cheltenham simply isn’t his track. Look out for him at the likes of Huntingdon, Hereford or Ludlow next time.

Distance
2m-2m3f110y: 0392P7580680040 (0-15)
2m4f-2m7f: 3P11030 (2-7)
3m+: 71442456P (1-9)
Conclusion: he needs a trip of at least 2m4f.

Going
Good to firm or faster: 9P75361 (1-7)
Good: 332811704046P0 (2-14)
Good to soft: P680 (0-4)
Soft/heavy: 004245 (0-6)
Conclusion: he handles mud but seems best on good or faster going.

Field size
12 or more runners: 093P58106817001420 (3-18)
11 or fewer runners: 32P780644456P (0-13)
Conclusion: he is suited by coming late off a strong pace and is likely to prove best in big fields.

Track
Left-handed: P808064P0 (0-9)
Right-handed: 03932P7516170340144256 (3-22)
Conclusion: all his wins have come on right-handed tracks (Ludlow (twice) and Hereford).

Fresh (absence since last race)
42 days or longer: 03P76650 (0-8)
21-41 days: 207003046P (0-10)
20 days or less: 39P5818141424 (3-13)
Conclusion: all his wins have come when returned to the track quickly (16, nine and 11 days after a previous outing).

Summary of ideal conditions
When returned to the track within three weeks of a previous outing his record at 2m4f or further reads: P111424 (3-7), improving to: 111 (3-3) when only considering his recent runs right-handed on good or faster going. All these runs took place over hurdles with the wins coming at odds of 50-1, 9-1 and 50-1.

KALCA MOME (FR)
9yo b g (P J Hobbs)

Got up close home to deny Champion Chaser Voy Por Ustedes at Cheltenham where he clearly relished the rapidly deteriorating ground. He’ll win again when the mud’s flying.

Race type
Hdl: 218151100 (4-9)
Chs: 12141319552718427F62310641282061 (8-32)
Conclusion: he is effective over hurdles and fences.

Going
Good or faster: 211439571F3066 (3-14)
Good to soft: 211580706228 (2-12)
Soft: 81512424101 (4-11)
Heavy: 1112 (3-4)
Conclusion: his best recent efforts have come on soft or heavy going.

Class
1: 950300 (0-6)
2: 45841F164128261 (4-15)
3: 2185113127127062 (5-16)
4: 1121 (3-4)
Conclusion: he has yet to win in Class 1 company.

Summary of ideal conditions
Combine chase starts with racing on soft or heavy going, below Class 1 company, and his record becomes: 124214121 (4-9), improving to: 112 (2-3) on heavy going only. All his wins have come over trips short of 2m4f.

SIMON
8yo b g (J L Spearing)

His reappearance run, when fifth in the 3m3.5f handicap chase at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting, was viewed negatively in most quarters but I take a different view. He would have needed the run and has always seemed happiest on flat tracks. He’ll be carrying my cash next time.

Race type
Hdl: 1224273 (1-7)
Ch: 434121152611F5 (5-14)
Conclusion: he's best over fences.

Distance
2m-2m2f110y: 142 (1-3)
2m3f-2m6f110y: 27343412 (1-8)
3m+: 21152611F5 (4-10)
Conclusion: he's best at 3m or further. His 2m5f Wincanton win (21 January 2006) was a most fortunate one as he was held in third place when left clear by two fallers.

Going
Good or faster: 4F5 (0-3)
Good to soft: 715 (1-3)
Soft: 122234312611 (4-12)
Heavy: 421 (1-3)
Conclusion: he's best on good to soft or softer going.

Fresh
Seasonal debuts: 1455 (1-4)
Conclusion: he won on his racecourse debut in Ireland when trained by Philip Fenton but has finished well beaten in both reappearance efforts for current trainer John Spearing.

Track (chase starts only)
Flat: 4341211511F (5-11)
Significant undulations: 265 (0-3)
Conclusion: he seems best on flat tracks.

Summary of ideal conditions
Combine chase starts with racing at 3m or further, outside of his seasonal debuts, and his record becomes: 112611F (4-7), improving to: 1111F (4-5) on flat tracks, with the fall coming in the 2007 Grand National.

ST MATTHEW (USA)
9yo b g (Mrs S J Smith)

He excels in small fields, so it’s easy to forgive a tame effort at Haydock last time when only eight of the 13 runners. He’ll be a decent price when next encountering a field of seven or fewer runners.

Race type
Hdl: 1214F221336194604 (4-17)
Ch: 1131FF8519F3106P8 (5-17)
Conclusion: he's effective over hurdles and fences.

Field size (chase starts only)
12 or more runners: 890P8 (0-5)
8-11 runners: 15F3 (1-4)
7 or fewer runners: 131FF116 (4-8)
Conclusion: all his chase wins have come in small fields.

Class
1 (Grade 1, 2 or 3): 33F9F604 (0-8)
1 (Listed): 81 (1-2)
2: 3F6519341P08 (2-12)
3: 4F22116 (2-7)
4 or lower: 12111 (4-5)
Conclusion: he has yet to win above Listed level.

Summary of ideal conditions
When racing over fences in fields of seven or fewer runners, below Grade 3 level, his record becomes: 11F116 (4-6), improving to: 1F11 (3-4) on good to soft or softer going.

TARANIS (FR)
6yo ch g (P F Nicholls)

A Grade 1 chase winner in Ireland on his reappearance, he probably found the race coming too soon when only fourth over hurdles at Haydock three weeks later and will be interesting when next returning from a break.

Race type
Hdl: 13114 (3-5)
Chs: 1U111F3121 (6-10)
Conclusion: he is effective over hurdles and fences.

Fresh (absence since last race)
35 days or longer: 1111111 (7-7)
34 days or less: 3U11F324 (2-8)
Conclusion: he runs especially well when fresh (his two non-fresh wins came when a short-priced favourite for novice events).

Summary of ideal conditions
When racing over hurdles or fences his UK record is: 131U1111F311214 (9-15), improving to: 1111111 (7-7) when rested for five weeks or longer. He seems best at trips of about 2m4f.

UNDERWRITER (USA)
7yo b g (Ferdy Murphy)

Got detached after a series of slow jumps before warming to the task and finishing fast into second at Sandown last time (3m). A longer trip will suit and, though early to be talking in terms of the Betfred Gold Cup or Irish Grand National, he’d be interesting in those events.

Race type
Hdl: 310 (1-3)
Ch: U1F43043PF32 (1-12)
Conclusion: he's effective over hurdles and fences.

Distance
2m-2m2f110y: 30 (0-2)
2m3f-2m5f110y: 1UF (1-3)
3m+: 1F43043P32 (1-10)
Conclusion: his 2m4f win came over hurdles and he's likely to prove best at 3m+.

Track
Left-handed: UF0 (0-3)
Right-handed: 31014343PF32 (2-12)
Conclusion: he has yet to win on a left-handed track.

Fresh
First two runs after a break of 12 weeks+ or when rested for five weeks+ thereafter: 31U13043PF3 (2-11)
Other runs: 0F42 (0-4)
Conclusion: he runs well when fresh.

Summary of ideal conditions
When racing right-handed at 2m3f+ his record is: 114343PF32 (2-10), improving to: 11343PF3 (2-8) when fresh.

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