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Tidal Bay would look a fair each-way alternative to Aran Concerto if running here instead of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

Selection: Silverburn

Dangers: Massini’s Maguire, Tidal Bay

Cheltenham 2.35 (Royal & SunAlliance Chase)

According To John has yet to place from two tries in Pattern company.

Aces Four has a record over jumps on good/faster of: 111F1 (4-5).

Chelsea Harbour has a record over 2m6f or further of: 1U21 (2-4), with the first defeat by a neck. He seems to handle any going and will appreciate the return to this sort of trip after his outpaced fourth in a 2m5f Grade 1 at Leopardstown last time.

Denman has career form figures of: 111121111 (8-9), with the sole defeat coming at last year’s Festival when a two-length second in the Sun Alliance Hurdle. That run came after a 33-day break and, though I concede that I may just be clutching at straws, this race might just come too soon - 32 days after his Newbury win from Mr Pointment. He also lacks big-field chase experience, his four runs over fences coming in fields of six, seven, four and three runners – he earned the comments “mistake” and “blundered” in the first two of them.

Dom D’Orgeval’s previous trainer kept him over hurdles as he didn’t feel he had the physique for chasing. He has hardly been impressive in landing two weak chases at Fakenham and Hexham for David Pipe and makes limited appeal at around the 7-1 mark.

Eurochancer, a winner over 2m1f last time, looked a non-stayer when tried over 3m at Chepstow last October, finishing a 17-length third to Miko De Beauchene.

Knowhere didn’t stay 3m in the Feltham and I can’t see him getting home up the hill.

Mossbank has a record of: 21F (1-3) at 3m or further, with the first defeat by just half-a-length.

Openide has a Cheltenham record on good/faster of: 110022 (2-6), improving to: 1122 (2-4) when not wearing headgear. He isn’t the biggest chaser in training, so this large field would be a concern (his last four wins have come in single-figure fields).

Patsy Hall has failed to complete in two of his last five starts and would have preferred a smaller field.

Royal Rosa suffers from leg problems and seems best on flat tracks and/or on soft going.

Snowy Morning has form figures of: 1211211 (5-7), with the first defeat coming on his hurdles debut in a field of 26. He won a Grade 2 at Navan last time out and his trainer’s runners are always to be respected in this event.

Feltham winner Ungaro has done the majority of his winning on right-handed tracks.

Cailin Alainn has won her last six completed starts and was still in contention when tipping up in the Cotswold Chase last time (won by Exotic Dancer). The return to novice company will suit but her jumping remains a cause for concern.

Turko’s last three wins have come at Aintree, Wincanton and Fontwell – all sharp/flat tracks. His record on tracks with significant undulations (e.g. here and Chepstow) stands at: 22622 (0-5).

Selection: Snowy Morning
Dangers (in racecard order): Aces Four, Chelsea Harbour, Denman, Dom D’Orgeval, Mossbank

Cheltenham 3.15 (Queen Mother Champion Chase)

Ashley Brook’s connections reckon his Game Spirit defeat to Well Chief can be blamed on the race coming too soon. The drying ground will suit and his record when ridden by Paddy Brennan reads: 1121312 (4-7).

Dempsey, who impressed at Sandown last time, was brought down this race last year and seems best right-handed.

Justified, who tends to jump out to his left, was 15 lengths behind Nickname at Fairyhouse last time but may do better now back on a left-handed track. He finished third in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown when last racing in this direction.

Mister McGoldrick, third last year for Sue Smith, makes his debut for Carl Llewellyn. He might find improvement for his new yard, but surely not enough to win this.

King George flop Monet’s Garden returned to winning ways in a 2m3f Grade 1 chase at Ascot last time and now has figures of: 1121112111 (8-10) at 2m-2m4f.

Last year’s winner Newmill has had a strange preparation – running twice over hurdles and once over fences (fell). Last year’s race hasn’t work out.

Nickname goes especially well when fresh but this is his seventh race of the season and fourth since the end of January. Throw in the fact that the ground has gone against him and he looks one to take on.

Oneway has gone over two years since his last win.

River City didn’t stay 2m3f at Ascot last time but travelled well for much of the race. The ground has come right for him but he would have preferred a smaller field..

RIVER CITY (IRE)
10yo b g (Noel T Chance)

Race type
NHF: 71 (1-2)
Hdl: 2511P4183 (3-9)
Ch: 11111362UP143 (6-13)
Conclusion: he's effective over hurdles and fences.

Field size (chase starts only)
12 or more runners: 3U (0-2)
10-11 runners: 6P (0-2)
7-9 runners: 3 (0-1)
6 or fewer runners: 11111214 (6-8)
Conclusion: he has yet to win over fences when facing more than five rivals.

Summary of ideal conditions
His jumping often suffers in big fields (the words 'hit', 'blundered' or 'mistake' have featured in his formbook comments every time he has run in a field of 10 or more runners) and, although a profit was made by backing him blind over fences, his strike-rate improves to an impressive: 11111214 (6-8) when only considering his chase starts in single-figure fields, with the first defeat by neck.

Sporazene has won three of his four completed starts over fences and might have been second to Well Chief at Newbury last time had he not sprawled on landing at the ninth fence.

I recommended Voy Por Ustedes antepost early in the season as I’d heard that Kauto Star was going to be tried over longer trips (wish I’d recommended him for the Gold Cup – he was around 70-1 on Betfair at the time!). His chase record reads: 11111221U (6-9) and the ground has come right.

Well Chief hacked up in the Game Spirit on his return from a long break and a repeat of that should see him win. There’s just a chance that this will come too soon (32 days after Newbury) and that’s reason enough not to back him at a short price.

Selection: Well Chief
Dangers (in order of preference): Voy Por Ustedes, Justified, Ashley Brook, River City

Cheltenham 4.00 (Coral Cup)

Finger On The Pulse seems ideally served by a big field/strong pace. When racing in fields of 15 or more runners his record reads: 2F2211210 (3-9). The ‘duck egg’ came on his only start outside Ireland (at Kempton) where he pulled very hard in a slowly run race. Good ground will suit.

Powerstation, second to Black Jack Ketchum in the Brit Insurance Hurdle at last year’s Festival for a different yard, has yet to win for current connections but looks to have been laid out for this and we should see the brakes come off today.

Oulart won the Pertemps Final a couple of years ago but was only eighth in that race last year after racing too freely when 4-1 fav. He’d have a good chance if able to settle and if not trying to make the running (difficult to pull off in this event).

Oscatello makes his debut for Philip Hobbs, who has a good record in this event. His record below 3m reads: 222121116 (4-9).

Copsale Lad won well on his return to hurdles at Newbury last time, That was over 3m in the mud but he’s just as effective at this trip on faster going.

All Star would have been placed at worst in this race last year had he not run out. He hasn’t really taken to fences since that effort and has to be considered on his return to hurdles, despite the suspicion that right-handed tracks suit best.

Hills Of Arran, placed in Graded hurdles on two of his last three starts, often takes a keen hold so is likely to be suited by the probable strong pace. He won on good ground on the Flat and should go well.

Burntoakboy hacked up by 19 lengths from a subsequent winner on soft ground at Leicester last time. He was an unlucky in running 33-1 ninth (badly hampered) for Michael Cunningham in this race last season and should go well despite his connections being concerned by the drying ground.

Selection: Oscatello
Dangers (in order of preference): Copsale Lad, Powerstation, Finger On The Pusle , Burntoakboy, Hills Of Arran, All Star

Cheltenham 4.40 (Kim Muir)

Systems guru Peter Stavers and I both arrived at last year’s winner, You’re Special, independently. Peter’s method for finding the winner of this race can be found on my website - www.trendhorses.co.uk. His shortlist comprises of Cloudy Lane, Ponmeoath, Cheeky Lady, Oodachee, Patricksnineteenth and Parsons Legacy.

Here’s my take on the main contenders….

Liberthine is trading as favourite but the 2005 Mildmay Of Flete winner has yet to win beyond an extended 2m5f.

Lord Of Illusion will come on for a recent pipe-opener over hurdles and the ground has come in his favour. However, he usually front-runs and will find it hard to dominate so many rivals.

Patricksnineteenth has only had three runs since finishing fourth in the 2004 Royal & SunAlliance Chase. His stable is going well but it’s asking a lot to win this after a 14-month layoff.

Turthen, not knocked about on his comeback, was still travelling well when falling at Sandown last time when we were on each-way and he should go close if his jumping holds up.

We bet Oodachee at Ascot a few runs back but he could only finish fifth on that speedier track. A Cheltenham record of: 2333 (0-4) suggests that he has each-way claims.

Ponmeoath won over 2m1f last time. His record at 2m6f+ reads: 6th – beaten by 38 lengths and 3rd – beaten by 18 lengths. There has to be a major doubt about him lasting home.

Parsons Legacy, third to Juveigneur in this race two years ago, was on my shortlist for last year’s renewal but could only finish ninth. Four of his five wins came in single-digit fields, the other in a six-finisher affair at Wincanton (12 set out) and, whilst I concede that he could place, he’s difficult to fancy from a win perspective in this huge field.

Cloudy Lane has a decent jockey up and his owner, Trevor Hemmings, always targets the staying handicap chases at this meeting. He was bogged down on heavy going behind Heltornic at Haydock last time but could easily bounce back on this faster surface.

Cheeky Lad has had just the three runs over fences – landing a 16-runner mares only beginners’ chase at Thurles (3m) before her third of 28 to Gold Cup hope Cane Brake at Leopardstown. She pulled up last time but goes well fresh, so could easily bounce back on her return from a 48-day break.

Selection: Turthen
Dangers (in order of preference): Oodachee, Cloudy Lane, Parsons Legacy, Patricksnineteenth

Cheltenham 5.20 (Weatherbys Champion Bumper)

Cork All Star is three from three in bumpers and had several winners behind when scoring here in November. Rested since, he must go well.

Willie Mullins has won this five times in the past nine years and Mad Fish is reportedly the pick of his entries and he’s the one I advised antepost at 11-1. A five-length second to Aranleigh on his Rules debut when reportedly in need of the experience and unsuited by the very soft conditions, he had the rest a distance behind and will appreciate the good going. He wears a tongue-tie for the first time today.

Sir Harry Ormesher is fancied to record a top-five finish by his small yard and it’s easy to see why. He found 1m5f on the short wide on his debut at Newbury but was far from disgraced in finishing a five-length sixth of 17 to Procas De Thaix. The winner finished a half-length second in a £50,000 bumper next time and the runner-up ran a 20-1 second to the useful Crocodiles Rock. Sir Harry H bolted up at Ascot next time (2m) and looks over-priced at the 66-1 with Ladbrokes.

One Gulp represents Paul Webber who has hit form of late. Webber went close with another 4yo (De Soto) in this race two years ago and again last year with Pressgang.

Shortlist: Mad Fish, Coral All Star, Sir Harry Ormesher

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